What to do with Skype?

Big question, and lots of interesting solutions. I've been out of the news loop the past couple of days, but this eBay/Skype story was hard to miss - examples here, here, here and here. Without rehashing the mainstream headlines, it's clearly on the table now that eBay has given up trying to create synergies with Skype, so the focus now is on making the best of things as distinct entities.

The preferred route for eBay would be to keep Skype and recoup their investment via an IPO sometime next year. That would certainly bring an end to things with both parties leaving on a high note. Of course this hinges heavily on the state of capital markets, and the optimist would say that by next year we'll be so fed up with the recession, investors will happily jump into anything resembling a good news story. Skype IS a good news story, and no doubt Wall Street would play this up as the IPO that kick starts tech stocks back to life. If so, Skype could ride this wave a while by validating this space for investors and giving us all a reason to believe that tech stocks can make us wealthy again.

And what do I mean by "this space" anyway? To me, this is where things get interesting. Most people associate Skype with VoIP and PC telephony, and we all know how poorly that "space" has done for investors lately. Don't forget Vonage got first mover advantage by going public ahead of Skype, and contrary to great expectations, their IPO set VoIP back a very long way with investors. I like Skype's prospects a lot more than Vonage, so for those looking for a second chance at the VoIP space, a Skype IPO would be ideal.

However, I see Skype being much more than a VoIP play. I won't deny that's important, but to me Skype is really a Web 2.0 story. Their revenues are built almost entirely around VoIP, but there's so much more potential if/when they can monetize their community of over 400 million users - video, mobile apps, social networking, file sharing, business users, etc. Of course that's a big IF, but think about what that would mean for all those Web 2.0 companies out there with huge communities but no real business models - Myspace, Facebook, Twitter, Flickr, etc. If Skype can show the way, then I could see their IPO being much bigger, not just financially, but providing some validity to invest in all these other stories, which then makes Web 2.0 the next BIG THING.

I'm guessing that's why Niklas and Janus want to buy Skype back. It has to be a good sign when the founders want back in, and they certainly aren't hurting for cash. Joost was their follow up to Skype, and it really hasn't done much - but probably could with Skype back in the picture. Talk about interesting possibilities. Of course, there's another big twist here - Joltid - which appears to be the core technology Skype was built upon. It's a mystery to me why this didn't come with the Skype acquisition - and I'm guessing the Skype folks felt it was too important, and maybe that's turning out to be true now. So, a lot depends on how this plays out, and who will end up with lawful control. I'd have to say all bets are off until this is resolved. If Joltid ends up with eBay, Skype may not be as attractive to the founders, and vice versa should it go the other way.

And then there's the scenario of Skype being acquired by one of the usual suspects - Google, Microsoft, Yahoo. There's a storyline around all these, but for my money, I've long felt Apple would be the best fit, or possibly a Web-savvy company like Adobe. I got to share that view with the BBC yesterday, which was nice, but we'll need a longer conversation to take this further. Back to work...

Max's Take on the new iPod Shuffle - Small is Beautiful

Got a new post to share from my closest blogging competitor - my son Max. He's written a review on the latest iPod Shuffle, and has an interesting take on its size and perceptions in general about the size of Apple's devices.

It may not be of interest for telecom types, but as always, a teen's point of view of tech and gadgets is distinct, and Max in particular has his own take on things. Enjoy, and by all means, let him know your thoughts!

Truphone - Helping Keep VoIP Alive and Well

In my most recent Service Provider Views column, I identified a number of companies that typify the innovation taking place now in VoIP that I think will make this an exciting space in 2009. One of them is Truphone, and readers of my blog will know that I’ve followed them for some time.

Yesterday I had a chance to speak with their new CEO, Geraldine Wilson, and it was great way to get a first hand update on what they’re announcing this week and next. Between Macworld and CES, they are playing on some big and important stages, and this alone should tell you that VoIP is far from dead.

Even casual followers of Truphone understand what they’ve done to advance mobile VoIP, and how they were the first VoIP application available to iPhone users from the App Store. That alone makes them worth watching. We all know that mobile VoIP will become mainstream sooner or later, so there’s nothing really groundbreaking there.

The more interesting news that will be announced during these two events has to do with broadening the scope of how we communicate with smartphones, and making them even more relevant to our everyday lives. While the focus is on the iPhone and iTouch, it's just a matter of time until these capabilities become true value-adds for smartphones as a category. I've always viewed smartphones as pocket-sized PCs rather than telephones, and Truphone is making some big strides now for extending the desktop experience to your mobile world.

First, is the introduction of IM on the Apple devices. This capability will be launched now for Skype and Google, and in time, they will add MSN and Yahoo. Using a touchscreen to tap out an IM is not my idea of time well spent, but my son Max would just love it. The IM feature is important for a couple of reasons. Aside from being a quick, convenient way to communicate, it's habit-forming, and cheaper than SMS. This is something that many Apple fans I'm sure will pick up on right away. This leads to my second point, which is presence. Wow. With IM, Truphone adds presence to the iPhone and iTouch. That's a cornerstone Web/Voice 2.0 feature, and with presence, communication becomes a much more powerful aspect of using these devices. This opens the door to all types of presence-enabled applications that I'm sure will turn up in the App Store very soon.

Second, is the ability now to move between an IM session and a voice call on these devices. This is where I think Truphone makes things very interesting, and more importantly, this is where they can make some money. It doesn't take much to see how appealing this combination can be - start out doing IM with your friend, and then deciding on the fly you want to talk instead. All in the same session - that's great.

With these two capabilities, Truphone has made some huge communities - Skype and Google - much more relevant to iPhone and iTouch users. Those buddy lists and address books will become much more valuable, not just for Apple users but the service providers carrying these sessions. It's a big deal for Truphone, but to me, it's an even bigger deal for Apple, as it validates the power of the smartphone, not just for communicating, but for community building. Neither Skype nor Google have yet to effectively extend their respective communities to the mobile world, but Truphone now makes that possible for them. I'm sure both are thrilled!

An interesting sidebar to watch will be how this impacts the behavior of iTouch users. With Truphone, they now have less of a reason to carry a cell phone. Since the iTouch really only works with WiFi for voice, it won't be a total switchout, but I'll bet it will be enough to catch the media's attention. That said, I don't see this cannibalizing iPhone sales, but you never know.

Looking ahead, the next frontier for me would be federating these capabilities across IM communities. Let's say I IM a Skype contact and escalate that to a voice call. Then my presence indicator tells me another contact on Google is available, and I've decided I want to patch that person into my Skype call. Ultimately that defeats the purpose of having distinct communities, but it sure would be a powerful feature to have.